2620 target hit, overshot (2626) & closed below (2614). Could see pullback to the 2590 area (38.2% retrace of wave 5) as there is a gap to fill. If we get above 2626 on Mon or Tues then we are likely headed for 2640-2650 area where I am calling a multi-year top & the ensuing correction should easily fill our little gap!
: It should have been obvious to me that wave 5 up had failed when we went below 2590. That means that wave 5 was really wave three that was not complete. Wave 3 completed at 2601. As long as we stay above 2520 we are now in wave 4 down which may be complete (perfect 76.4% retrace of whole 5 wave move up from 2510). If 2531 holds as the bottom of wave 4, wave 5 up targets 2620.
: : "Reset" phase looked to be complete, wave 1 up topped at 2601 & failed taking us below 2590 & closing at 2577. Downside may not be finished- if not, 2563 area is targeted.
: : : 2590 target hit, overshot (2593) & closed below (2588). Short term 5 wave move up from 2510 is complete & we are now in a short term ABC or "reset" phase. Would expect correction to stay above 2576 here- we are closing in on the end of a long term 5 wave move up from Aug 04- still looking for that 2640-2650 ultimate top.
: : : : 2520 may be as low as we go for wave 4- it is the 23.6% retrace of the whole move up from 2332. Carry currencies are supporting the move up so far. If 2520 holds, we are now in wave 5 up with a target of 2590.
: : : : : 2527 target hit & slightly overshot- closed at 2525. May mean more downside- could fall to 2466 or lower (2400?) if 2511 is breached. Carry currencies (Yen & Franks) will be key in determining which way we go.
: : : : : : If 2533 holds as a wave 4 low, wave 5 up targets 2602. Not convinced that 2533 holds, still could get to 2527 area Monday or Tuesday considering how volatile wave 4 has been up to this point.
: : : : : : : Wave 4 down is still active- we have fallen below 2551 so the next target is 2527 area (76.4% retrace). Would expect this area to hold as a low for wave 4. If so, wave 5 up would target 2596 area. If we go below 2511, 5 wave count from 2510 is invalidated.
: : : : : : : : It looks like a wave four retrace down to 2551 (roughly 38.2%) may be all we get. If we stay above 2551 & get past 2584 we are likely in a fifth wave up with a target in the 2622 area. Would expect a small reaction here since it is very close to the ultimate 2640/2650 long term target. If we stall around 2584 & then fall below 2551, count is invalidated & we are likely headed for 2526.
: : : : : : : : : 2574 target hit & slightly overshot (2577) but closed below (2572). I think we have finished wave 3 up with an intra-day wave 4 down to 2562 (23.6% retrace). Would expect more wave 4 down here to at least 2553 (38.2%) & possibly 2526 (76.4%). If wave 3 is not finished & we go up above 2577 on Monday then wave three internal structure targets the 2584 area.
: : : : : : : : : : 2539 violated, short term move up wiped out. If 2511 holds as a low here we have just put in a wave 2 down- wave 3 up to follow.
: : : : : : : : : : : As long as we don't violate the small consolidation at 2539, a short term 5 wave move up from 2510 targets 2571. An intermediate term projection targets 2572 and a long term projection targets 2574. We should see some sort of reaction in this area. Long term target remains 2640-2650 area which now seems likely to be reached in May.